BofA – OPEC: Extend and Pretend

00096c2a-1600The last time OPEC (and Non-OPEC) member nations sat down to attempt a coordinated increase in oil prices by cutting production they succeeded… for about three months. Ever since then, oil has been on a gradual declining path, boosted by a surge in US shale output and declining global demand, with WTI recently even sliding sliding below OPEC’s implicit price floor of $50/barrel. Which is why on 25 May, after the failure of the first 6 month production cut, the same nations will try the same exercise, this time looking to cut output for 9 months, and hoping for a different outcome. At least that is the general expectation.

Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch has released a note previewing this week’s OPEC meeting titled “OPEC: extend and pretend“, and which boils down to the 3 choices faced by OPEC: maintain, curb, or hike output.

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Weekly Market Update

  • UK market hits twelve consecutive days of record highs
  • Sterling dips ahead of PM May’s Brexit speech
  • Dollar retreats following Trump press conference
  • Chinese trade data shows fall in exports
  • US small business confidence soars

James Klempster (CFA) of Momentum Global Investment Management shares his view:

As Barack Obama’s presidency began in January 2009 – deep in the market sell-off following the global financial crisis – it was reasonable to presume that his job was at best thankless and at worst almost impossible.  Yet, in many ways history may well tell us that his job was simple in comparison to that of his successor.  Obama rode to victory on a tide of optimism and expectation that set him apart starkly from George W. Bush.  Obama’s youth and eloquence stood him apart from the man he replaced.  During that time tensions and the risk of policy missteps were high, but equally expectations were low due to the volume of bad news.

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Weekly Market Update

News this past week:

  • Markets climb on ‘Santa Claus rally’
  • ECB extends quantitative easing programme
  • Volatile week for Italian banks following referendum
  • Encouraging trade data out of China
  • Oil surges after more countries agree to cut production

James Klempster (CFA) of Momentum Global Investment Management shares his view:

As this is my final blog of 2016 I felt it an apt time to look back on the year and to look forward to some key issues for 2017.  My colleague, Glyn Owen, will be writing a far more detailed review and outlook which will be published in the coming days .  2016 was a year of mixed fortunes for investors, a very weak start set precedence for what looks likely to be a decent year for equity markets. 2016 will be best remembered for its twin political surprises of Brexit and Trump, or Brump, if you will. Whilst both being seismic-scale political events, the fact that their respective domestic markets brushed them off underscores the fact that a macro or political story is not the same as an investment case.  To put it another way – even if you had called both elections correctly, would you have positioned your portfolio to benefit from an equity rally in either case?  Probably not.

To read the full update please click here

Weekly Market Update

News this past week:

  • US indices record new highs
  • Fillon wins French centre-right primary
  • UK Q3 GDP growth at +0.5% amid sombre OBR forecasts
  • Euro area PMIs show encouraging signs of growth
  • Trump reiterates intent to leave TPP

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Weekly Market Update

• Sterling vs USD lowest since 1985, whilst UK equities reach record highs
• US economy adds 156,000 jobs in September
• Dollar rises as expectations converge on December rate hike
• ECB rumours trigger rise in global bond yields
• In commodities, oil rises and gold falls

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Momentum GIM Harmony Portfolio Q2 Update

In this month’s vodcast, Momentum Global Investment Management Portfolio Manager, Andrew Hardy, reviews the latest Harmony Portfolios’ performance as well as the main themes, the asset allocation drivers of performance and how the portfolios are positioned today.

To learn more about the Harmony Portfolios, or to discuss the benefits and savings from having your investment or pension actively and professionally managed by a UK FCA regulated, discretionary investment manager, speak to Intelligent Investments today.