Taking the Temperature of the Global Economy

Currently the difference between two and ten-year US Treasury bond yields is at its lowest level since 2007, raising fears of an imminent recession. Our base case scenario remains one in which we continue to see a slow, synchronised global expansion. As such we see better value at the front end of the US yield curve and some evidence of mispricing further out, rather than a canary in the coal mine. Nonetheless it is worth spending a minute taking the temperature of the global economy.

Richard Stutley (CFA) of Momentum Global Investment Management, one of our UK regulated, discretionary fund managers shares their view. Click here to learn more.

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China, Russia Pare US Treasuries Holdings as Trade Tensions Rise. A Sign of Things to Come?

rtx1gzco.jpgPresident Donald Trump threatened to escalate the trade fight with China into an all-out trade war on Monday, promising to impose massive tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing reverses course on its own trade actions.

Meanwhile, foreign governments have pulled back their purchases of longer-term US debt as trade tensions escalate, with Russia dumping half of its holdings. Could this be a sign of things to come? Learn more

Understanding the Recent Market Sell-off

Not widely welcomed, but arguably overdue?

The sharp sell-off in stocks that started last week and gathered steam this week lacked a specific trigger — unlike the last time US shares fell this much, which came in the wake of the US losing its AAA sovereign rating at S&P Global Ratings in 2011.

As with plane crashes, the experts are pointing to a confluence of factors, from concerns over the path of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases to a rapid unwinding of trades predicated on continued low volatility in markets.

Learn more