Market Viewpoint Q3 2017

Glyn Owen, Investment Director of Momentum Global Investment Management, one of our UK regulated, discretionary fund managers shares his view of the markets and reviews the third quarter of 2017.

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Market Update – The Third Way

  • Oil rose 3.4% on the week with Brent at USD 56
  • Gold fell 1.8 % to 1315
  • Haven assets decline, global equities rise
  • North Korea launches second missile over Japan

Thus far President Trump’s leadership has been long on noise but short on results. He has failed to come up with any legislative wins in his first eight months, despite the Republicans’ control of both chambers of Congress and the executive. This is mostly due to intransigence – the White House has simply not been playing its traditional coordinating role to help bills through Congress.

There are also now rumours of another potential deal with the Democrats on DACA, a program to legalise people who arrived in the country illegally as children and have grown up in the US. Yet to be confirmed, this deal would be in exchange for additional border security funding but surprisingly doesn’t mention the wall with Mexico, a key issue for Trump’s base.

Jeromine Bertrand (CFA) of Momentum Global Investment Management, one of our UK regulated, discretionary fund managers, shares his view. Click here to view.

The Global Cycle Has Further To Run

News this past week:

Stock graph
• Oil prices rose 2% on the week with Brent at USD 53.9
• Gold rose 1.9 % to 1347, its third week of gains
• Risk appetite returns as treasuries retreat, stocks advance
• Apple set to launch the iPhone 8 and X models this week
• Hurricane Irma devastates the Caribbean and Florida

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The Value of Insurance

Insurance, in everyday life, is well understood. Simplistically, it’s something that you and I buy to protect ourselves from losing money in the event of a bad outcome. But when it comes to investments, we would argue that portfolio insurance is often overlooked.

Richard Stutley (CFA) of Momentum Global Investment Management, one of our UK regulated, discretionary fund managers, shares his view. Click here to view.

Volatility: Deep Calm in the Markets

“Not since Watergate have our legal systems been so threatened, and our faith in the independence and integrity of those systems so shaken,” These were the words of Senator Richard Blumenthal of the US Judiciary on the incendiary news that President Trump has fired the Director of the FBI, James Comey. The timing of the termination, occurring whilst the presidential campaign is under investigation for possible ties to Russian collusion has raised eyebrows…

Yet those searching for some immediate negative market reaction to events reminiscent of the Nixon debacle would be hard pushed to find much of any real significance: A small slide on equity futures and a brief flight to currency safe havens (a fleeting rally on USD/JPY to a 114.32 high which swiftly retraced to a 113.63 low) were about all- Indeed the S&P500 index even ticked upwards, closing at a record high of 2399.63 on the day. What is more, the US equity markets have remained largely flat since February, whilst volatility on treasuries also remains low. What effect this latest twist will have on Trump’s longer term economic plan of tax reforms, protectionism, healthcare and infrastructure investment remains to be seen. Some indicators that it is stalling were already in place after a tumultuous first one hundred days, and it is hard to see these latest developments helping matters.

James Jones (CFA) of Momentum Global Investment Management, one of our UK regulated, discretionary fund managers, shares his view. Click here to view.