Harmony Portfolios

The End of the Car Industry?

Julius Davison, Director, Intelligent Investments Market commentary , , , ,

Roadster_2.5_windmills_trimmedOne of the most interesting parts of our jobs is having the opportunity to have great debates with some of the best fund managers in the world.

The car industry has gone relatively undisrupted for the past 100 years but is now under threat from the emergence of the electrical car. James Jones (CFA) of Momentum Global Investment Management, one of our UK regulated, discretionary fund managers, shares a recent discussion we had with one of our more aggressive growth managers – Is the way we drive about to radically change, and are we seeing the last days of the car industry?

Click here to view.

Volatility: Deep Calm in the Markets

Julius Davison, Director, Intelligent Investments Discretionary Investment Management, Market commentary , , , , , , ,

“Not since Watergate have our legal systems been so threatened, and our faith in the independence and integrity of those systems so shaken,” These were the words of Senator Richard Blumenthal of the US Judiciary on the incendiary news that President Trump has fired the Director of the FBI, James Comey. The timing of the termination, occurring whilst the presidential campaign is under investigation for possible ties to Russian collusion has raised eyebrows…

Yet those searching for some immediate negative market reaction to events reminiscent of the Nixon debacle would be hard pushed to find much of any real significance: A small slide on equity futures and a brief flight to currency safe havens (a fleeting rally on USD/JPY to a 114.32 high which swiftly retraced to a 113.63 low) were about all- Indeed the S&P500 index even ticked upwards, closing at a record high of 2399.63 on the day. What is more, the US equity markets have remained largely flat since February, whilst volatility on treasuries also remains low. What effect this latest twist will have on Trump’s longer term economic plan of tax reforms, protectionism, healthcare and infrastructure investment remains to be seen. Some indicators that it is stalling were already in place after a tumultuous first one hundred days, and it is hard to see these latest developments helping matters.

James Jones (CFA) of Momentum Global Investment Management, one of our UK regulated, discretionary fund managers, shares his view. Click here to view.

Global Market Viewpoint Q1 2017

Julius Davison, Director, Intelligent Investments Discretionary Investment Management, Market commentary , , , , ,

As UK Prime Minister Theresa May calls for an early general election to expedite the Brexit process, Glyn Owen, Investment Director of Momentum Global Investment Management, one of our UK regulated, discretionary investment managers shares his view of the markets and reviews first quarter of 2017.

Expectation Not Hope – Investing Shouldn’t Be a Gamble

Julius Davison, Director, Intelligent Investments Discretionary Investment Management, Market commentary , , ,

diInvestment and gambling are often conflated but the reality is that investment and the mindset required to undertake investment is wholly different from that of a gambler.

While investing may be risky in a manner akin to gambling, the major difference is the motive behind the behaviour.

James Klempster (CFA) of Momentum Global Investment Management, one of our UK regulated, discretionary fund managers, shares his view. Click here to view.

Investor Confidence Is High – Why Are We Surprised?

Julius Davison, Director, Intelligent Investments Market commentary , , , , , , , ,

ftse100-14-feb-2017Survey data out of both the US and UK in recent months has confounded perceived wisdom
because despite significant political upheaval in these countries last year, confidence has improved.

This is something of a surprise because such substantial changes may be considered a destabilisation risk given the relative fragility of confidence following the global financial crisis.  Indeed, only twelve months ago the market would seemingly fall regardless of news flow as a combination of weak resource prices, concerns over China and now long forgotten whispers about the end of the credit cycle provided a negative background that was difficult to overlook.

To paraphrase Charles Mackay, author of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (first published in 1841) market participants were gripped by fear and in that condition investors saw risk even in enticing opportunities.

James Klempster (CFA), Head of Portfolio Management for Momentum Global Investment Management shares his view. Click here to view.

2016 Market Review – Inflection Point in the Global Cycle

Julius Davison, Director, Intelligent Investments Discretionary Investment Management, Market commentary , , , , , ,

It might be an exaggeration to say that we are on the cusp of a new world order – but equally it just might not, we cannot be sure. What seems more certain is that we are at a great inflection point in the global economic and market cycle… It has very important implications for investors.

Click here for the 2016 Market Review and what markets may hold for investors in the New Year by Glyn Owen, Investment Director at one of our UK regulated discretionary fund managers, Momentum Global Investment Management.

May we also take this opportunity to wish you Seasons Greetings, and a Happy and Prosperous New Year from the team at Intelligent Investments.

 

Weekly Market Update

Simon Cook Brexit, Europe, Market commentary, Oil and Gas, UK Economy, US Economy , , , , , , , , , , ,

News this past week:

  • Markets climb on ‘Santa Claus rally’
  • ECB extends quantitative easing programme
  • Volatile week for Italian banks following referendum
  • Encouraging trade data out of China
  • Oil surges after more countries agree to cut production

James Klempster (CFA) of Momentum Global Investment Management shares his view:

As this is my final blog of 2016 I felt it an apt time to look back on the year and to look forward to some key issues for 2017.  My colleague, Glyn Owen, will be writing a far more detailed review and outlook which will be published in the coming days .  2016 was a year of mixed fortunes for investors, a very weak start set precedence for what looks likely to be a decent year for equity markets. 2016 will be best remembered for its twin political surprises of Brexit and Trump, or Brump, if you will. Whilst both being seismic-scale political events, the fact that their respective domestic markets brushed them off underscores the fact that a macro or political story is not the same as an investment case.  To put it another way – even if you had called both elections correctly, would you have positioned your portfolio to benefit from an equity rally in either case?  Probably not.

To read the full update please click here