UBS: Australia’s Housing Boom Is ‘Officially Over’

Melbourne-PropertyThe housing boom that has seen Australian home prices more than double since the turn of the century is “officially over,” after data showed prices now flatlining, UBS Group AG said.

National house prices were unchanged in October from September, while annual growth has slowed to 7 percent from more than 10 percent as recently as July, CoreLogic data released Wednesday showed. “There is now a persistent and sharp slowdown unfolding,” UBS economists led by George Tharenou said in a report. Learn more

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Bestinvest’s Spot the Dog

Dog FundsAt Intelligent Investments, our discretionary investment managers don’t rely on external fund research as rolling up our sleeves and performing their own due diligence is fundamental to their investment process and being selected by Intelligent Investments. Not only is it important from a fund selection point of view, it is crucial from a portfolio construction point of view as it’s not really possible to combine funds together effectively into a portfolio unless one is intimately aware of their individual characteristics.

That said, not relying on third party research isn’t the same as being oblivious to what others are thinking. We’re a curious bunch, so when we come across analysis from others we quite enjoy pulling it to pieces to see what ideas are worth internalising, which methods we can learn from and what is, at best, just noise. Learn more

The Impact of the 2016 US Election on Investors

election-2016

Whilst the US election results are becoming harder to predict below are some of the likely economic impacts of the upcoming US election results.

 

Summary

  • Washington decision making is likely to become more fractious regardless of the election result. Divisions between and within the Republican and Democratic Parties have been growing, and an outcome whereby neither party would have a significant majority in the House of Representatives is a possibility.  This could make it harder to reach consensus on legislation, potentially heralding another return to dramatic showdowns over budget issues.
  • Corporate tax reform and increased spending on infrastructure appear to have some bipartisan support and would be a ripe area for negotiation in a divided Congress. Infrastructure spending should boost growth more than usual amid rock-bottom interest rates.
  • A growing backlash against free trade and immigration threatens to make economies more insular at a time when economic growth and productivity in many countries are barely above stall speed. Emerging markets have the most to lose, especially under a victory by Republican nominee Donald Trump. Mexico is a clear potential loser given its heavy reliance on exports to the US.
  • The US election campaign suggests rising populist sentiment is likely here to stay. We also see potential changes to income taxes, with ripple effects on US municipal bonds. We focus on two sectors that could be most affected by the election: financials and health care.  Mergers and acquisitions are set to face increased scrutiny if Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton prevails, as the Democrats appears to view anti-trust enforcement as a tool to boost competition and address inequality.

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Pension Funds Pile on Risk Just to Get a Reasonable Return

An investor used to get a 7.5% return by holding safe bonds. Now, three times more risk gets you the same returns as twenty years ago, research finds.

What it means to be a successful investor in 2016 can be summed up in four words: bigger gambles, lower returns.

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Where Does The US Get Its Oil?

Howmuch.net came out with some infographics to show that from 2000 to 2015. Interestingly there is a notable shift from the US depending heavily on Middle East countries and Mexico, to depending more on America’s neighbor to the north, Canada.

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Monthly market update and commentary

Please see below for a review of global markets from Glyn Owen; the Investment Director of Momentum Global Investment Management.

Please click here for the latest monthly viewpoint from Momentum Global Investment Management with insights on the current market environment, market performance and the latest asset allocation dashboard.